Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.008267 0.009312 0.010455 0.011802 0.013348 0.015073 0.017147
2024-12-29 0.006549 0.007947 0.009612 0.011752 0.014448 0.017754 0.022151
2025-01-05 0.005865 0.007482 0.009521 0.012305 0.016048 0.020962 0.027993
2025-01-12 0.005024 0.006656 0.008806 0.011881 0.016229 0.022254 0.031398
2025-01-19 0.004417 0.006042 0.008262 0.011567 0.016451 0.023543 0.034884
2025-01-26 0.004025 0.005667 0.007986 0.011566 0.017074 0.025431 0.039472
2025-02-02 0.003845 0.005565 0.008073 0.012086 0.018511 0.028694 0.046670
2025-02-09 0.003543 0.005250 0.007807 0.012023 0.019009 0.030508 0.051707
2025-02-16 0.003327 0.005039 0.007673 0.012144 0.019801 0.032878 0.058040
2025-02-23 0.003074 0.004748 0.007382 0.011969 0.020060 0.034343 0.062910
2025-03-02 0.002918 0.004595 0.007295 0.012122 0.020896 0.036917 0.070275
2025-03-09 0.002737 0.004387 0.007098 0.012060 0.021327 0.038785 0.076509
2025-03-16 0.002486 0.004048 0.006666 0.011561 0.020940 0.039132 0.079845
2025-03-23 0.002332 0.003865 0.006487 0.011510 0.021410 0.041248 0.087437
2025-03-30 0.002285 0.003861 0.006620 0.012051 0.023099 0.046073 0.102044
2025-04-06 0.002103 0.003603 0.006275 0.011636 0.022799 0.046651 0.106743
2025-04-13 0.001954 0.003393 0.006000 0.011330 0.022687 0.047617 0.112575
2025-04-20 0.001857 0.003273 0.005882 0.011328 0.023223 0.050110 0.122796
2025-04-27 0.001831 0.003281 0.006008 0.011837 0.024939 0.055591 0.142149
2025-05-04 0.001740 0.003159 0.005870 0.011775 0.025358 0.058021 0.153572
2025-05-11 0.001675 0.003084 0.005818 0.011893 0.026206 0.061641 0.169258
2025-05-18 0.001586 0.002952 0.005643 0.011722 0.026341 0.063451 0.179876
2025-05-25 0.001534 0.002894 0.005613 0.011872 0.027278 0.067513 0.198542